熱點評論 正評論:颶風群舞兩大洋,誰...

正評論:颶風群舞兩大洋,誰言「人定勝天」?

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【新三才獨家首發評論】近一個月來,美國連續遭逢兩大颶風侵襲——四級颶風哈維(Harvey)侵襲德州、五級颶風艾瑪(Irma)侵襲佛州。然而,上一場颶風大戲的舞台還沒收拾完成,下一場颶風已經虎視眈眈準備登台,而且,這次還一次就來三個——颶風荷西(Jose)、熱帶風暴瑪麗亞(Maria),以及熱帶風暴李(Lee),正在大西洋上共舞著;太平洋這邊也有颶風諾瑪(Norma)盤據墨西哥西側並有可能威脅加州。

雖然目前看來,颶風荷西在經過10天的打轉後,路徑可能往北走而有減弱的趨勢,也較不影響美國本土,但是人們其實對颶風這樣的天氣系統,是完全無法控制與影響的;上一個颶風艾瑪也是很典型的案例,人們不但影響不了颶風的生成與強度,甚至連其行進的路徑預估都只能在已經較靠近的時間點才能有較高的準確度。

人類一度以為透過人造衛星的監控、透過直接可深入氣旋核心的飛機觀測,以及各種科學設備、材料,甚至武器,可以有機會扮演老天爺的腳色——呼風喚雨。可是幾十年發展下來,所謂的現代科技越發發達,卻甚至連以往常被拿來誇耀人類成功影響天氣的「人造雨」都仍顯得力不從心,還得在許多天時地利之下,才有機會稍微影響一些降雪(通常約為5%~15%)或降雨量(通常難以衡量),更不用說在乾旱時期或地區要真的憑空創造出「人造雨」可就完全是緣木求魚。

另外,雖然有些研究指出如果能增加大氣中懸浮顆粒物(比如硫酸鹽氣膠),可以讓地球表面(通常指海洋)的溫度略微降低,進而減少地表蒸發而干擾水循環,有機會減低氣旋發生。但是,除了1991年的菲律賓火山爆發所引起的大面積大氣中懸浮顆粒物增加,間接導致15個月後海面溫度降低0.6度之外,要人為製造這樣的大面積降溫,且能確實對颶風生成有所影響,還是充滿著不可行與大量的未知數。

那避免或減低不了颶風,人類有無可能反而直接創造出颶風?其實也是不可行。有人認為颶風的生成是因為海面受太陽照射導致水氣上升,加上氣旋的效應而產生,因此模擬利用衛星發射雷射光來對海面加溫的可能性,結果計算後發現,即使用上10億瓦的高能雷射,也只能對小範圍加溫,影響不了大局。

或許,上天正是透過颶風的威力與震攝,讓人們在一片崇尚尖端科技與科學可以征服一切事物的「人定勝天」觀念中,還能有機會謙卑面對大自然的神秘力量與安排。大家也不妨思考看看,中國古代人們願意敬天畏神的態度,那種面對惡劣天象反而反求諸己,要求自己德性提升來「順天而行」,是否能比「人定勝天」更能達到真正「天人合一」的境界呢?

(評論/責任編輯:姜啟明)

(文章來源:新三才首發)

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