时事万象 评论:卡尔佐吉谋杀案 川普...

评论:卡尔佐吉谋杀案 川普声明深思熟虑

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【新三才编译首发】美国川普总统11月20日对沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼(Mohammed bin Salman)于10月2日在土耳其伊斯坦布尔沙特领事馆涉嫌谋杀沙特持不同政见者贾马尔·卡尔佐吉(Jamal Khashoggi)一事刻意保持模糊的做法是正确且经深思熟虑的。

川普于周二获悉中央情报局的一项评估,该评估据称已确定王储下令于10月2日在伊斯坦布尔谋杀该记者。然而,川普当天下午发表了一篇不同寻常的声明,其中有八个感叹号,他开头先写道:「美国第一!世界是一个非常危险的地方!」,然后才开始广泛捍卫沙特人。川普在声明中也宣称,「很可能(沙特)王储知道了此一悲惨事件,也许他做了,也许他没有。」

让我们明确一点,川普在这里近乎突破了媒体报导的可信度。华盛顿邮报于11月16日正式报导,说证据显示萨勒曼对卡尔佐吉的谋杀负有责任。土耳其政府也分享该评估,并威胁要公布其结论的证据。川普之所以不愿意听土耳其所掌握的卡尔佐吉谋杀案资料的真实原因,就是这样他可以隔绝他对萨勒曼责任的否认。

这里的关键是,虽然卡尔佐吉的谋杀是一次侮辱与暴乱,并导致萨勒曼和沙特阿拉伯感到羞耻,但让该谋杀案不要严重损害美国与沙特的关系才真正符合美国的利益。如果川普也直接指责萨勒曼,这将导致美国与沙特关系出现严重破裂,以及沙特外交政策可能会从美国转向俄罗斯。

川普认识到这一点。虽然川普的声明过分关注沙特从美国购买武器,但它也明确指出美国在限制伊朗方面的中东力量利益平衡,以及萨尔曼加强针对基地组织和伊斯兰国等组织的区域反恐的努力。

这项努力相对较近期,也反映了几十年前接受圣战极端分子的沙特政策所需的急需改变。但是,由于另一个原因,萨勒曼对美国也很重要,那就是他正在进行的国内改革。王储正在进行一系列重大的经济和社会改革,以提高沙特社会的女性参与和权利,并使沙特经济多元化,脱离对石油的依赖。尽管萨尔曼希望保留沙特王室而非一些道德利益,但这些努力对美国的长期安全至关重要。因为如果萨勒曼的改革失败,沙特阿拉伯将成为一个充满年轻人口膨胀、高失业率和激进伊斯兰主义的土地。这将是促成拥有更大资源,规模和能力的进阶版伊斯兰国家(IS恐怖份子)的一个完美配方。考虑到沙特对核武器的兴趣越来越大,这也将会带来更大的危险。

最终,川普所作出的选择,是究竟要冒着美国人的安全风险,或是直接承认一个体面男人的野蛮谋杀。在现实主义的考量下,川普深思熟虑之后做出了正确的选择。

(作者:Tom Rogan)

(编译:王明真)

(责任编辑:姜启明)

(文章来源:新三才编译首发)

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